Abstract
Background: Understanding the dynamical behavior of dengue transmission is essential in designing control strategies. Mathematical models have become an important tool in describing the dynamics of a vector borne disease. Classical compartmental models are well–known method used to identify the dynamical behavior of spread of a vector borne disease. Due to use of fixed model parameters, the results of classical compartmental models do not match realistic nature. The aim of this study is to introduce time in varying model parameters, modify the classical compartmental model by improving its predictability power.
Results: In this study, per–capita vector density has been chosen as the time in varying model parameter. The dengue incidences, rainfall and temperature data in urban Colombo are analyzed using Fourier mathematical analysis tool. Further, periodic pattern of the reported dengue incidences and meteorological data and correlation of dengue incidences with meteorological data are identified to determine climate data–driven per–capita vector density parameter function. By considering that the vector dynamics occurs in faster time scale compares to host dynamics, a two dimensional data–driven compartmental model is derived with aid of classical compartmental models. Moreover, a function for per–capita vector density is introduced to capture the seasonal pattern of the disease according to the effect of climate factors in urban Colombo.
Conclusions: The two dimensional data–driven compartmental model can be used to predict weekly dengue incidences upto 4 weeks. Accuracy of the model is evaluated using relative error function and the model can be used to predict more than 75% accurate data.

Abstract
COVID-19 global outbreak has been significantly damaging the human well-being, life style of people and the global economy. It is clear that the entire world is moving into a dangerous phase of this epidemic at the moment. With absence of a preventive vaccine, the governments across world implement, monitor and manage various public health and social distancing measures to control the spread of this extremely contagious disease and it is found that most of these responses have been critical results of numerous mathematical and decision support models. In this study, SEIR compartment structure is used to model the COVID-19 transmission in Sri Lanka. Reported cases data during the first 80 days of the outbreak is used to model the time dependent transmission rate of the disease. Optimal transmission rates and initial size of the exposed and infected sizes of the populations are then estimated matching between clinically identified cases to model based simulated outcomes.

Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in increasing number of infections and deaths every day. Lack of specialized treatments for the disease demands preventive measures based on statistical/mathematical models. The analysis of epidemiological curve fitting, on number of daily infections across affected countries, provides useful insights on the characteristics of the epidemic. A variety of phenomenological models are available to capture the dynamics of disease spread and growth. The number of daily new infections and cumulative number of infections in COVID-19 over four selected countries, namely, Sri Lanka, Italy, the United States, and Hebei province of China, from the first day of appearance of cases to 2nd July 2020 were used in the study. Gompertz, logistic, Weibull, and exponential growth curves were fitted on the cumulative number of infections across countries. AIC, BIC, RMSE, and R2 were used to determine the best fitting curve for each country. Results revealed that the most appropriate growth curves for Sri Lanka, Italy, the United States, and China (Hebei) are the logistic, Gompertz, Weibull, and Gompertz curves, respectively. Country-wise, overall growth rate, final epidemic size, and short-term forecasts were evaluated using the selected model. Daily log incidences in each country were regressed before and after the identified peak time of the respective outbreak of epidemic. Hence, doubling time/halving time together with daily growth rates and predictions was estimated. Findings and relevant interpretations demonstrate that the outbreak seems to be extinct in Hebei, China, whereas further transmissions are possible in the United States. In Italy and Sri Lanka, current outbreaks transmit in a decreasing rate.

OptimizingWiener and Randic Indices of Graphs

Negative Binomial Regression +Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Modelling of Dengue Disease in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Multiple Linear Regression Models on Interval-valued Dengue Data with Interval-valued Climatic Variables

Harmonic Analysis via an Integral Equation: An Application to Dengue Transmission

Abstract

Dengue is the world’s rapidly transmitting mosquito-borne viral disease. It is mostly found in subtropical countries in the world. The annual number of global deaths caused by dengue fever is about 25,000. The Sri Lanka dengue situation is also not different to other countries. In the year 2019, dengue fever caused 120 deaths in Sri Lanka. Most of these deaths were reported from the main administrative district Colombo. Health authorities have to pay their attention to control this new situation. Therefore, identifying the hot spots in the country and implementing necessary actions to control the disease is an important task. This study aims to develop a clustering technique to identify the dengue hot spots in Sri Lanka. Suitable risk factors are identified using expert ideas and reviewing available literature. The weights are derived using Chang’s extent method. These weights are used to prioritize the factors associated with dengue. Using the geometric mean, the interaction between the triggering variable and other variables is calculated. According to the interaction matrices, five dengue risk clusters are identified. It is found that high population movement in the area plays a dominant role to transmit the disease to other areas. Most of the districts in Sri Lanka will reach to moderate risk cluster in the year 2022.

Abstract

COVID-19 is a pandemic which has spread to more than 200 countries. Its high transmission rate makes it difficult to control. To date, no specific treatment has been found as a cure for the disease. Therefore, prediction of COVID-19 cases provides a useful insight to mitigate the disease. This study aims to model and predict COVID-19 cases. Eight countries: Italy, New Zealand, the USA, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Spain, and South Africa which are in different phases of COVID-19 distribution as well as in different socioeconomic and geographical characteristics were selected as test cases. The Alpha-Sutte Indicator approach was utilized as the modelling strategy. The capability of the approach in modelling COVID-19 cases over the ARIMA method was tested in the study. Data consist of accumulated COVID-19 cases present in the selected countries from the first day of the presence of cases to September 26, 2020. Ten percent of the data were used to validate the modelling approach. The analysis disclosed that the Alpha-Sutte modelling approach is appropriate in modelling cumulative COVID-19 cases over ARIMA by reporting 0.11%, 0.33%, 0.08%, 0.72%, 0.12%, 0.03%, 1.28%, and 0.08% of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the USA, Brazil, Italy, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, Spain, and South Africa, respectively. Differences between forecasted and real cases of COVID-19 in the validation set were tested using the paired t-test. The differences were not statistically significant, revealing the effectiveness of the modelling approach. Thus, predictions were generated using the Alpha-Sutte approach for each country. Therefore, the Alpha-Sutte method can be recommended for short-term forecasting of cumulative COVID-19 incidences. The authorities in the health care sector and other administrators may use the predictions to control and manage the COVID-19 cases.

Exponential Smoothing on Forecasting Dengue Cases in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Effectiveness of the Strategies Implemented in Sri Lanka for Controlling the COVID-19 Outbreak”

Abstract
The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak that originated in the city of Wuhan, China, has caused a significant damage to the world population and the global economy. It has claimed more than 0.8 million lives worldwide, and more than 27 million people have been infected as of 07th September 2020. In Sri Lanka, the first case of COVID-19 was reported late January 2020 which was a Chinese national and the first local case was identified in the second week of March. Since then, the government of Sri Lanka introduced various sequential measures to improve social distancing such as closure of schools and education institutes, introducing work from home model to reduce the public gathering, introducing travel bans to international arrivals, and more drastically, imposed island wide curfew expecting to minimize the burden of the disease to the Sri Lankan health system and the entire community. Currently, there are 3123 cases with 12 fatalities and also, it was reported that 2925 patients have recovered and are discharged from hospitals, according to the Ministry of Health, Sri Lanka. In this study, we use the SEIR conceptual model and its modified version by decomposing infected patients into two classes: patients who show mild symptoms and patients who tend to face severe respiratory problems and are required to be treated in intensive care units. We numerically simulate the models for about a five-month period reflecting the early stage of the epidemic in the country, considering three critical parameters of COVID-19 transmission mainly in the Sri Lankan context: efficacy of control measures, rate of overseas imported cases, and time to introduce social distancing measures by the respective authorities.

Assessment of environmental variability on malaria transmission in a malaria-endemic rural dry zone locality of
Sri Lanka: The wavelet approach

A Multi-Criterion Simulation Model to Determine Dengue Outbreaks